Aplicaciones prácticas de la Dinámica de Sistemas en un mundo complejo

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2 Aplicaciones prácticas de la Dinámica de Sistemas en un mundo complejo Juan Martín García CENTRO DE RECURSOS PARA CIENCIAS E INGENIERIA. PUERTO RICO Diciembre 2006

3 DINAMICA DE SISTEMAS Diagrama Causal Diagrama de Forrester TEORIA GENERAL DE SISTEMAS

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6 50 AÑOS

7 The Economist

8 APLICACIONES EN LAS EMPRESAS Dirección y gestión Organización de la producción Conocimiento y comunicación Marketing y ventas Economía y finanzas Gestión de proyectos Análisis de riesgos Investigación y desarrollo Recursos humanos

9 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS DIRECCION Y GESTION 19_3 Building A Sustainable Strategic Advantage In The Third Millennium: A Case Method Approach. Jay Azriel 19_10 Do Numerical Simulation And Optimization Results Improve Management? Experimental Evidence. Erling Moxnes 19_19 Limits To Growth On The New Economy: An Exploration Of The Get Big Fast Strategy In Dot.Com's. Martin Giese 19_26 Simulation Of Qualitiative Models To Support Business Scenario Analysis. Karl Lang 20_1 Developing a Balanced Scorecard with System Dynamics. Henk Akkermans. 20_11 Entrepreneurial Personal Drive Becoming a Limit to the Company Potential: An Organizational Dynamics Perspectiv 20_16 A Dynamic Theory of the Service Management: Implications for Managing Service Improvements Avoiding the 'Se 20_18 When Do Minor Shortages Inflate to Great Bubbles? Paulo Gonçalves 20_23 A Generic Tool Based on a System Dynamics Approach to Assess SME Business Stability and Help Designing Busi 20_32 A Dynamic Model for the Development of New Technologies for Ship Systems. Pavinder Monga. 20_42.-System Approach to Business Rules. Veerendra K.Rai. 21_12 Economic Dynamics in Mobile Service Industry. Yueping Chen 21_13 An Application of a System Dynamics Model to Evaluate Information and System Performance. Ik Jae Chung 21_14 A distributed System Dynamics-Based Framework for Modeling Virtual Organizations. Bryan Conneely 21_20 A Conceptual Model of Operating Internet-based B2C Business in fast-growing Industries. Yulin Fang 21_22 The Dynamics of Resource Sharing and Organizational Slack in the Growing Multibusiness Firm. Michael Shayne 21_23 A Simulation Based Approach to Understanding the Dynamics of the Transition from Product Manufacturer to Serv 21_29 Acquiring Higher-Order Knowledge Using the System Dynamics Approach in Teaching Business Subjects. Stefanie H 21_50 On the Relation between System Dynamics and Soft Systems Methodology in Consulting. Stephen McIntosh 21_54 System Dynamics in Six Sigma Practice. Paul Newton. 21_59 Development of Multiplayer Games through Group Modeling. Morten Ruud. 21_61 Linking Balanced Scorecard to System Dynamics. Frank Schoeneborn. ORGANIZACIÓN DE LA PRODUCCION 19_16 A System Dynamics Analysis Of The Effects Of Capacity Limitations In A Multi-Level Production Chain. Jorn W. E 19_18 System Dynamics Analysis Of Stability During Non-Equilibrium Stage In Physical Distribution. Yoshitoku Fukunag 20_12 Banking Back Office Processing Behavior: Considerations on a Process Activity Managed by Capacity Saturation P

10 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS MARKETING 19_7 How To Define A Profitable And Sustainable Growth Policy In A Changing Market: A Case Study: A Small Publish 20_13 Building a Sustainable, In-House System Dynamics Capability: How an Internal System Dynamics Group Can Dev the Company's Operations. Adolfo Canovi. 20_19 Policies Influencing the Diffusion of Instant Messaging. Andreas Grobler. 21_10 Service Quality and Customer Abandonment. Massimiliano Caramia 21_36 An Examination of the Timing of Investments for Pay TV Operators. Daniel Jarosch 21_49 System Dynamics and a Product-Market Matrix for Strategic Planning. Ali Mashayekhi 21_51 Why Customer Choose Your Product. Rutger Mooy 21_55 Dairy Policy and Price Volatility. Charles F.Nicholson 07_02 Simulation of the business firm using several different princing approaches. Malcolm Brady ECONOMIA Y FINANZAS 20_4 Coordination Between Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy by Means of a Model of Dynamic Simulation. Carlos Alva 20_35 Savings-Investments Model in Egypt. Cherine Mohamed Morsi. 20_45 A Historical Fit of a Model of the US Long Wave. Alexander V.Ryzhenkov. 21_31 Modern Electronics: Teaching Economics to High School Students with a System Dynamics Simulator. Gary Hirsch 21_44 Industry Evolution: A Dynamic Behavioral Model. Martin Kunc 21_47 On the Confounding of Overshoot and Collapse Predictions by Economic Dynamics. Corey Lofdahl 07_01 Propuesta del modelo financiero para el sistema de Tarjetas de Crédito. Ivonne Andrea Ruiz GESTION DE PROYECTOS 19_6 Applying System Dynamics To Scenario Based Software Project Management. Marcio Oliveira Barros 19_14 The Rotten Mango: The Effect Of Corruption On International Development Projects. Richard Dudley 20_30 Integrative Mechanisms in New Product Development Projects: Effect of Project Complexity on Project Performanc 20_43 Dynamics of Schedule Presure in Software Projects. Veerendra K.Rai. 21_24 Understanding Schedule Unreliability: A Case Study of a Facility-Tooling Project. Nuno Gil 16_01 Effects of Constructibility Reviews on Highway Project Duration. David Ford. 17_20 Simulação dinâmica de modelos operacionais com enfoque aplicado à engenharia de projetos. João Batista Filho.

11 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS GESTION DE PROYECTOS 19_6 Applying System Dynamics To Scenario Based Software Project Management. Marcio Oliveira Barros 19_14 The Rotten Mango: The Effect Of Corruption On International Development Projects. Richard Dudley 20_30 Integrative Mechanisms in New Product Development Projects: Effect of Project Complexity on Project Performance Approach. Reda Lebcir. 20_43 Dynamics of Schedule Presure in Software Projects. Veerendra K.Rai. 21_24 Understanding Schedule Unreliability: A Case Study of a Facility-Tooling Project. Nuno Gil 16_01 Effects of Constructibility Reviews on Highway Project Duration. David Ford. 17_20 Simulação dinâmica de modelos operacionais com enfoque aplicado à engenharia de projetos. João Batista Filho. 17_21 Los índices de costos de calidad, una herramienta estratégica para el éxito de los poryectos. Rubén Gómez Sánchez. 30_297 Embedding Game-Theoretic Concepts into System Dynamics Models: The Case of Complementary Products Devel Emmanuel with Nikolaos Pomonis, Yeoryios Stamboulis. 30_335 Using Simulations to Define the Product Development Strategy Expected to Achieve the Shortest Time to Profitabi John Elter 30_290 Chu, Feedback Loops and Policy Scenarios in The Chinese Private Vehicle Demand Model. Ted with Changming X Ming Liu 30_318 Perception of Information Value Production of Influence Diagrams versus Level-Rate Models: The Opinion of Dec Martin with Felix Gaudet-Dumais 30_234 Keep on Rolling: Understanding the Migration Dynamics of a Large Railway Improvement Project. Curram, Stephe Jocelyn Lovegrove 30_167 System Dynamics Student Projects as Quality Improving Process. Gonzalez, José with Agata Sawicka ANALISIS DE RIESGOS 19_29 System Dynamics Practice In A Non-Ideal World: Modelling Defence Preparedness. Alan Mc. Lucas 21_9 Using Simulation to Produce a Data Fusion Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Manmade and Natural Disas 21_16 Extreme Event Agenda Setting and Decision Making. Michael Deegan 21_35 System Dynamic Modeling of Engineered Landfill Covers. Jacob Jacobson

12 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS ORGANIZACIÓN DE LA PRODUCCION 19_16 A System Dynamics Analysis Of The Effects Of Capacity Limitations In A Multi-Level Production Chain. Jorn W. E 19_18 System Dynamics Analysis Of Stability During Non-Equilibrium Stage In Physical Distribution. Yoshitoku Fukunag 21_39 Behavioral Causes of the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains. Elena Katok 21_26 Information Sharing to Reduce Fluctuations in Supply Chains: A Dynamic Feedback Approach. Baris Gunduz 30_255 Warehouse Optimization in an Uncertain Environment. Kljajic, Miroljub with Davorin Kofjac, Andrej Škraba, Valte 30_311 Simulating the Evolution of Industries Using a Dynamic Behavioral Model. Kunc, Martin. 30_251 Modeling Modern Maintenance: A System Dynamics Model Analyzing the Dynamic Implications of Implementing Productive Maintenance. Thun, Jörn-Henrik. 30_221 A Simulation Model for Organizational Evolution. Wang, Wei Yang with Yi Ming Tu. 30_403 A Dynamic Diffusion Model for Managing Customer's Expectation and Satisfaction. Yeon Seung-Jun with Sang-H Wook Kim, Won-Gyu Ha. 30_232 A Critical Review of the Use of System Dynamics for Organizational Consultation Projects. Zock, Alexander with Rautenberg. PETROLEO, GAS, CARBON Y MINERIA 20_14 A System Dynamics Analysis of the Westray Mine Disaster. David Cooke. 20_28 Alternative Modeling Approaches: A Case Study in the Oil and Gas Industry. Scott T. Johnson. 20_36 Repeated Overshoot and Collapse Behavior: An Example from the Petroleum Industry. Paul Newton. 08_03 Dynamics of Oil Price in the World Market. Ali N. Mashayekhi. 11_01 The application of System Dynamics Theory to the Chacking and Ratifying of the Mine Production Capacity. Feng 11_02 System Dynamics in Resource Management: A Sustainable Development Aproach To Resource Extradition in Sierr 14_19 Desarrollo de una región minera. Jorge Orellana

13 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS Gestión de Proyectos - Un modelo puede simular la aparición de errores que modifiquen las cargas de trabajo previstes, o el efecto de la fecha de entrega.

14 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS Gestión de la Producción - Un modelo permite ver los efectos de los retrasos en producción o la política de contratación de más personal.

15 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS Calidad y Gestión de Procesos - Un modelo permite simular los procesos de producción y hacer análisis de sensibilidad de sus fases.

16 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS Formación y Gestión del Personal - Los modelos permiten analizar aspectos como la motivación, los objetivos o el conocimiento.

17 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS Simulaciones en Investigación - Los modelos permiten anticipar la dinámica de los procesos.

18 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS Precios y Producción - Los modelos ayudan a gestionar las oscilaciones que se producen debido a cambios en sus precios.

19 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS Dirección General y Finanzas - El System Thinking permite elaborar estrategias globales y analizar inversiones concretas.

20 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS Reglas para el EXITO: 1) No hacer un modelo de toda la empresa, estudiar un problema. 2) Ofrecer resultados preliminares con rapidez.

21 APLICACIONES EN EMPRESAS Reglas para el FRACASO: 1) Intente hacer un modelo de toda la empresa. 2) No ofrezca soluciones al problema.

22 APLICACIONES EN LA ROBOTICA + =

23 APLICACIONES EN CIENCIAS NATURALES - Gestión del agua -Biología marina -Agricultura - Ganadería -Bosques - Desertificación - Piscicultura

24 APLICACIONES EN CIENCIAS SOCIALES -Urbanismo - Planificación regional - Desarrollo sostenible - Procesos de paz - Corrupción - Catástrofes -Epidemias - Elecciones públicas - Sistema educativo

25 Mi experiencia personal (1) EMPRESA DEL SECTOR DEL GAS MODELO DE GESTION DE LA PRODUCCION Y LA DISTRIBUCION

26 Mi experiencia personal (2) EMPRESA DEL SECTOR QUIMICO MODELO DE ANALISIS Y PREVISION DE PRECIOS

27 Mi experiencia personal (3) EMPRESA AUDITORA MODELO DE ORGANIZACIÓN DE LOS RECURSOS HUMANOS

28 Mi experiencia personal (4) EMPRESA SECTOR ELECTRICO MODELO DE GESTION DE LA POLITICA DE COSTES

29 Mi experiencia personal (5) EMPRESA SECTOR PETROLIFERO MODELO PARA LA REDUCCION DE LOS ACCIDENTES DE TRABAJO

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31 Aplicaciones prácticas de la Dinámica de Sistemas en un mundo complejo Juan Martín García

32 Aplicaciones prácticas de la Dinámica de Sistemas en un mundo complejo gracias Juan Martín García