Corrupción, Gobernanza y Desarrollo Económico: Chile y América Latina en Un Marco Empírico Global. Daniel Kaufmann

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1 Corrupción, Gobernanza y Desarrollo Económico: Chile y América Latina en Un Marco Empírico Global Daniel Kaufmann Presentación al Magister de Gestión y Políticas Públicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, 20 de Octubre de

2 Principio # 6: Todas las Hipótesis Previas son incorrectas 1. La Gobernabilidad y la Corrupción pueden ser medidas, analizadas y monitoreadas 2. El dividendo de desarrollo de anti-corrupción 3. En general la Corrupción no ha disminuido 4. Algunos países si han mejorado 5. La importancia de tener una estrategia y programa concreto: lucha contra la corrupción no se consigue con decretar una lucha contra la corrupción, sino con reformas sistémicas profundas: Basado en evidencia, Medidas decisivas, Prevención, Transparencia, Aplicar 2

3 Enfoque Empírico de la Gobernabilidad 1. Macro : Indicadores Agregados de Gobernabilidad Mundiales: 200 países, 6 componentes, periódico 2. Mezzo : Encuestas a Empresas entre Países 3. Micro : Diagnósticos de Gobernabilidad y Capacidad Institucional por país profundos y especializados: Incluye encuestas a: i) usuarios de servicios públicos (ciudadanos); ii) empresas, y iii) funcionarios públicos Al Nivel Agregado/Macro primero 3

4 La Multi-Dimensionalidad de Gobernanza Gobernanza: conjunto de tradiciones e instituciones a través de los cuales se ejercita la autoridad en un país -- específicamente: El proceso por el cual aquellos en autoridad son seleccionados y remplazados VOZ Y RENDICIÓN DE CUENTAS ESTABILIDAD POLÍTICA & AUSENCIA DE VIOLENCIA/TERRORISMO La capacidad del gobierno para formular e implementar políticas EFECTIVIDAD DEL GOBIERNO CALIDAD REGULATORIA Respeto de ciudadanos y el estado a instituciones que gobiernan las interacciones entre ellos ESTADO DE DERECHO CONTROL DE LA CORRUPCIÓN 4

5 Datos de Gobernabilidad Datos de gobernabilidad de 37 fuentes diferentes construidos por 31 organizaciones diferentes Las fuentes de datos incluyen encuestas por países de empresas, agencias de clasificación del riesgo comerciales, think-tanks, agencias gubernamentales, agencias internacionales, etc variables sustitutivas para varias dimensiones de gobernabilidad Organizar estas medidas en 6 grupos correspondientes a la definición de gobernabilidad, para cinco periodos: 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004 Método Estadístico avanzado de agregación -- UCM 5

6 Fuentes de Datos de Gobernanza Cross-Country Surveys of Firms: Global Competitiveness Survey, World Competitiveness Yearbook, BEEPS Cross-Country Surveys of Individuals: Gallup World Poll, Global Corruption Barometer, Latinobarometro, Afrobarometer Expert Assessments from Commercial Risk Rating Agencies: Global Insight, Political Risk Services, BERI, Economist Intelligence Unit, Merchant International Group, IJET Travel Consultancy, Asia Risk Consultancy Expert Assessments from NGOs, Think Tanks: Reporters Without Borders, Heritage Foundation, Freedom House, Bertelsmann Foundation, Amnesty International, IREX, Global Integrity, Binghamton University, International Budget Project Expert Assessments from Governments, Multilaterals: World Bank CPIA, EBRD, AFDB, ADB, State Department, OECD, IFAD 6

7 Control de la Corrupción, algunos países, fin Good Governance 0 Governance Level Margin of Error -2.5 EQ. GUINEA HAITI Poor Governance ANGOLA VENEZUELA PARAGUAY RUSSIA ECUADOR NICARAGUA GUATEMALA CHINA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC JAMAICA ARGENTINA INDIA PERU MEXICO COLOMBIA DISCLAIMER: The data and research reported here do not reflect the official views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. The WGI are not used by the World Bank Group to allocate resources or for any other official purpose. Source for data: 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June 2008, Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red: country is in the bottom 10 th percentile rank ( governance 7 crisis ); Light Red: between 10 th and 25 th percentile rank; Orange: between 25 th and 50 th percentile rank; Yellow, between 50 th and 75 th ; Light Green between 75 th and 90 th percentile rank; and Dark Green: between 90 th and 100 th percentile (exemplary governance). Estimates subject to margins of error. BRAZIL EL SALVADOR SOUTH AFRICA COSTA RICA SLOVENIA BOTSWANA ESTONIA URUGUAY SPAIN CHILE UNITED STATES HONG KONG UNITED KINGDOM CANADA SINGAPORE NETHERLANDS NEW ZEALAND DENMARK FINLAND

8 Estado de Derecho, 2007 Source for map: 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red: country is in the bottom 10 th percentile rank ( governance crisis ); Light Red: between 10 th and 25 th percentile rank; Orange: between 25 th and 50 th percentile rank; Yellow, between 50 8 th and 75 th ; Light Green between 75 th and 90 th percentile rank; and Dark Green: between 90 th and 100 th percentile (exemplary governance). Estimates subject to margins of error.

9 Estado de Derecho, 2007: Americas Source for map: 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red: country is in the bottom 10 th percentile rank ( governance crisis ); Light Red: between 10 th and 25 th percentile rank; Orange: between 25 th and 50 th percentile rank; Yellow, between 50 9 th and 75 th ; Light Green between 75 th and 90 th percentile rank; and Dark Green: between 90 th and 100 th percentile (exemplary governance). Estimates subject to margins of error.

10 Voz y Rendicion de Cuentas, 2007: Americas Source for map: 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red: country is in the bottom 10 th percentile rank ( governance crisis ); Light Red: between 10 th and 25 th percentile rank; Orange: between 25 th and 50 th percentile rank; Yellow, between th and 75 th ; Light Green between 75 th and 90 th percentile rank; and Dark Green: between 90 th and 100 th percentile (exemplary governance). Estimates subject to margins of error.

11 Estabilidad Politica, 2007: Americas Source for map: 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red: country is in the bottom 10 th percentile rank ( governance crisis ); Light Red: between 10 th and 25 th percentile rank; Orange: between 25 th and 50 th percentile rank; Yellow, between th and 75 th ; Light Green between 75 th and 90 th percentile rank; and Dark Green: between 90 th and 100 th percentile (exemplary governance). Estimates subject to margins of error.

12 Efectividad Gubernamental, 2007: Americas Source for map: 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red: country is in the bottom 10 th percentile rank ( governance crisis ); Light Red: between 10 th and 25 th percentile rank; Orange: between 25 th and 50 th percentile rank; Yellow, between th and 75 th ; Light Green between 75 th and 90 th percentile rank; and Dark Green: between 90 th and 100 th percentile (exemplary governance). Estimates subject to margins of error.

13 Calidad del Marco Regulatorio, 2007: Americas Source for map: 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red: country is in the bottom 10 th percentile rank ( governance crisis ); Light Red: between 10 th and 25 th percentile rank; Orange: between 25 th and 50 th percentile rank; Yellow, between th and 75 th ; Light Green between 75 th and 90 th percentile rank; and Dark Green: between 90 th and 100 th percentile (exemplary governance). Estimates subject to margins of error.

14 Control de la Corrupción, 2007: Americas Source for map: 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red: country is in the bottom 10 th percentile rank ( governance crisis ); Light Red: between 10 th and 25 th percentile rank; Orange: between 25 th and 50 th percentile rank; Yellow, between th and 75 th ; Light Green between 75 th and 90 th percentile rank; and Dark Green: between 90 th and 100 th percentile (exemplary governance). Estimates subject to margins of error.

15 Indicadores de Gobernabilidad, Colombia, 1998, 2003 & 2007 Source for data: : 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June ( Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red, bottom 10 th percentile rank; Light Red between 10 th and 25 th ; Orange, between 25 th and 50 th ; Yellow, between 50 th and 75 th ; Light Green between 75 th and 90 th ; Dark Green above 90 th.

16 Indicadores de Gobernabilidad: Venezuela, 1998, 2003, 2007 Source for data: : 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June ( Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red, bottom 10 th percentile rank; Light Red between 10 th and 25 th ; Orange, between 25 th and 50 th ; Yellow, between 50 th and 75 th ; Light Green between 75 th and 90 th ; Dark Green above 90 th.

17 Indicadores de Gobernabilidad: Republica Dominicana, 1998, 2003,

18 Indicadores de Gobernabilidad: Chile, 1998, 2003 & 2007 Source for data: : 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June ( Colors are assigned according to the following criteria: Dark Red, bottom 10 th percentile rank; Light Red between 10 th and 25 th ; Orange, between 25 th and 50 th ; Yellow, between 50 th and 75 th ; Light Green between 75 th and 90 th ; Dark Green above 90 th.

19 Indicadores de Gobernabilidad: Chile,

20 Voz y Rendición de Cuentas: Latin America

21 Estabilidad Política y Falta de Violencia: Latin America

22 Efectividad Gubernamental : Latin America

23 Calidad del Marco Regulatorio: Latin America

24 Estado de Derecho: Latin America

25 Control de la Corrupción: Latin America

26 2007 Indicadores de Gobernabilidad 100 Voz y Rendicion de Cuentas Estado de Derecho Estabilidad Politica / no Violencia Control de la Corrupcion Percentile Rank (0-100) Tigres Asiaticos America Latina CHILE Source for data: 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June

27 2007 Indicadores de Gobernabilidad 100 Voz y Rendicion de Cuentas Estado de Derecho Control de la Corrupcion Percentile Rank (0-100) Tigres Asiaticos America Latina Caribe Source for data: 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June

28 2 Cambios en Control de la Corrupción, Major Deterioration (selected countries) Insignificant Change (selected countries) 0 Major Improvement (selected countries) -2 ERITREA MALDIVES ZIMBABWE TONGA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SPAIN INDIA CHILE Changes were calculated on the basis of the differences in country estimates from 1998 and Classification for major deteriorations and improvements were based on 75% confidence interval. Source for data: 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June BOTSWANA NIGER EL SALVADOR TANZANIA SERBIA RWANDA CAPE VERDE 28 LIBERIA

29 $30,000 El 300% Dividendo de Desarrollo de mejoras en Gobernanza $3,000 $300 Low Rule of Law Medium Rule of Law High Rule of Law 29 Data Source for calculations: KK Y-axis measures predicted GDP per capita on the basis of Instrumental Variable (IV) results for each of the 3 categories. Estimations based on various authors studies, including Kaufmann and Kraay.

30 Panama Índice de Doing Business, Percentile Rank Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic Ecuador Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay Venezuela El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Source for data: Doing Business,

31 Indice de Competitividad Global, Chile 2008 Source: EOS firm survey, WEF countries. 31

32 High Global Competitive Index Control de la Corrupción y Competitividad, Low r = 0.86 NGA ZWE TCD CHN SAU THA CZE TUN KWT BRN BHR OMN PRI LTU SVK ZAF JOR IND ITA RUS IDN POL MEX PAN LVA HRV CRI MUS HUN BRA TUR AZE KAZPHL UKR VNM MNP GRC COL MAR ROM BGR SYR HND SLV LKA NAM GTM PER GMB JAM ARG YUG KEN GEOMKD TTO MDA SEN DOMDZA PAK MNG GHA ECU KHM VEN ALBEN BIH SUR CIV BGD CMR TJK GUY ZMB TZA KGZ NIC MWI ETH BOL MLI PRY NPL LSO BFA MDG UGA BDI TMP MOZ MRT MYS KOR TWN ISR ESP EST ARE SVN BWA QAT URY PRT JPN FRA BEL CHL HKG DEU CHEDNK SGP SWE NLD CAN FIN GBR AUT NOR AUS Voice & Accountability IRL NZL LUX High Source: EOS firm survey, WEF Global Competitiveness Survey 2008 & 'Governance Matters VII: Governance Indicators for , by D. Kaufmann, A.Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, June 2008, ISL 32

33 Obstáculos para Hacer Negocios, Chile Source: EOS firm survey, WEF countries. Chart reports percentage firms who reported constraint as #1. 33

34 Chile en perspectiva comparativa internacional, Frecuencia de sobornos, EOS 2008 Alta frecuencia 7 Sobornos en: Licencias Comercio Impuestos Judicatura Coneccion servicios publicos Licitaciones publicas Frequency of Bribery 4 1 Latin America Chile Dominican Republic Source: EOS firm survey, WEF countries. Question: In your industry, how commonly firms make undocumented34 extra payments or bribes connected with permits / utilities / taxation / awarding of public contracts / judiciary? (common never occurs).

35 Eficacia de la Policia segun reportes de empresarios, EOS % empresas satisfechas OECD East Asia NICs Former Soviet Union Source: EOS firm survey, WEF Latin America Emerging 35 economies

36 Good 6 Eficiencia del Marco Legal, EOS Chile 4 3 Latin America 2 Dominican Republic 1 Poor Source: EOS firm survey, WEF2008. Question: Efficiency of the legal framework for private businesses to settle disputes and challenge the legality of government actions.

37 Transparencia Gubernamental, EOS Good 6 5 Chile 4 Dominican Republic 3 Latin America 2 Poor Source: EOS firm survey, WEF2008. Question: Are firms informed clearly by the government on changes in policies and regulations?

38 6 Favoritismo en las Politicas y Decisiones Gubernamentales, EOS Good 5 Chile 4 3 Latin America 2 Dominican Republic 1 Poor Source: EOS firm survey, WEF2008. Question: When deciding upon policies and contracts, government officials usually favor well connected individuals.

39 Responsabilidad del Sector Privado y Multinacionales en Control de Corrupción (% de Empresas Reportan Sobornos a Licitación, 2006) Location Multinational in Multinational Domestic Firms in NON OECD, HQ in operating outside OECD Countries (comparable) of Firm: another OECD OECD, HQ in OECD Source: EOS2006. Questions: When firms like yours do business with the government, how much of the contract value must they offer in additional payments to secure the contract?. Y-axis shows percentage of firms who admitted paying bribes. Last bar excludes small with less than 50 employees. 39

40 Algunas Lecciones de Evidencia Mundial 1. Gobernanza y Corrupción son Medibles: rigor, sin sesgos, margen de error, cautela 2. Buena Gobernanza crucial para manejo Macro, Crecimiento, Competitividad e Inclusión 3. Corrupción como síntoma 4. La Gobernanza puede cambiar rápidamente: mejoras y bajas en una década, y variación 5. No funciona: Cortoplazismo, Parcialismo, Incrementalismo, y más Leyes, Sobreregular, crear Comisiones de Ética 6. Sí funciona medidas audaces prioratarias, cambiando incentivos: transparencia, estado de derecho, competencia 40

41 Programa de Reformas Concretas: Transparencia 1. Declaración Pública (con fácil acceso): Activos de Políticos, Candidatos, Funcionarios Públicos, Legisladores, Jueces, y dependientes 2. Declaración Pública de contribuciones a Campañas Políticas (individuos y empresas), y gastos de campaña 3. Acceso publico inmediato a los Votos Parlamentarios, y a las deliberaciones borradores/propuestas de ley 4. Implementación Efectiva de Leyes de Conflicto de Intereses y Ley de Lobby, separando negocios, política, gobierno 5. Transparentar el sector bancario/financiera (y empresarial) 6. Implementación Ley de Libertad de Información 7. Transparencia presupuestaria: centro, nivel local, web 8. Todas las Licitaciones en el web y competitivas 9. Libertad de Prensa y de los Medios, sin trabas. 10. Transparencia de Datos -- y Diagnostico Profundo 41

42 Agencias Mal gobernadas vs. Bien gobernadas en País (Ejemplo Ecuador, clasificadas por funcionarios públicos, diagnóstico del 2000) La Comisión de Tránsito de Guayas Congreso Consejo de Tránsito Aduanas Policia Petroecuador El Presidente de la República Defensor del Pueblo ONGs Ejercito La Iglesia Organizaciones Profesionales % que reporta que la agencia es muy corrupta 42

43 Transparencia dentro de las Agencias de Gobierno previene la Compra de Posiciones Públicas Compra de Puestos Baja Moderadamente Baja Moderadamente Alta Alta Transparencia Interna Asociación Promedio Simple < Enlace Causal de Control Margen de Error < Basado en 90 agencias nacionales, departamentales y municipales cubiertas en la Encuesta de Funcionarios Públicos 43

44 Transparencia relacionada con Control de la Corrupción, High r = 0.79 Low Control de Corruption ZWE ARE SGP AUT LUX SVN BWA BHR CYP ISR URY HUN TWN GRC ITA JOR CRI TUN ZAF SVK MYS CZE MUS LVA LTU KOR POL HRVBGR MAR TTO NAM BRA MDG PAN LKA COL TUR ROM SLV THA EGY BIH GHA NIC IND MEX MLI PER ARG GMB CHN GTM MKD YUG DZA DOM JAM PHL ETH TZA HND MOZ VNM KEN GEO ECU MWI RUS UGA UKR BOL ZMB IDN VEN PAK TCD AGO PRY BGD NGA HKG MLT ES P ISL BEL FIN NZL DNK CHE SWE NOR NLD GBR CAN Low Source: World Bank Institute, Calidad Transparencia IRL FRA JPNPRT EST CHL USA High 44

45 Transparencia relacionada con Ingresos per cápita $30,000 Income per capita (PPP, log) $300 LUX USA SGP HKG JPN CHE NOR DNK CAN AUT ITA ISL BEL NLD FRA SWE GBR IRL FIN ARE NZL CYP ISR ES TWN P KOR BHR CZE SVN PRT GRC MLT MUS ARG SVK MYS TTOURY HUN CHL VEN RUS HRV THA ZAF MEX POL EST BRA TUR LVA LTU TUN BWA PAN BGR PRY COL UKR ROM CRI DZA GEOMKD NAM SLV PER EGY MARGTM JOR ECUIDN DOM JAM YUG LKA PHL ZWE CHN BOL HND IND PAK NIC VNM BGD BIH AGO KEN GHA GMB TCD NGA ZMB MOZ UGA MDG MLI MWI ETH r = 0.74 $3,000 TZA Low Source: World Bank Institute, Calidad Transparencia High 45

46 High Transparencia Política e Institucional, UCM Institutional Transparency UCM Political Transparency 0 Transparency Index ARGEN TINA BRA ZIL CHILE COSTA RICA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EL SALVADOR MEXICO PANAMA PARAGUAY PERU -2.5 VEN EZUELA Low Source: World Bank Institute, Index ranges from -2.5 (worst) to 2.5 (best). 46

47 América Latina: Bajo crecimiento promedio en los últimos 25 años, con varianza ( ) Nicaragua Venezuela Bolivia Negative Per Capita Growth El Salvador Honduras Guatemala Paraguay Peru Ecuador Brazil Argentina Per Capita Growth 0-1% Mexico Uruguay Colombia Costa Rica Panama Per Capita Growth: 1-2% Dominican Republic Chile Countries with pc Growth Rate >2% Source: WDI GDP per capita growth,

48 Think Again: Regiones, comparativas Ingreso per cápita Income per capita (PPP) East Asia NICs Eastern Europe Latin America Source for data: WDI GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP). Data are in constant 2000 international dollars. 48

49 Chile: Un tigre o sólo un gato ágil? Ingreso per cápita (in PPP Constant 2000 Income per capita (PPP) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 dollars) Chile Dominican Republic Korea, south Source for data: WDI GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP). Data are in constant 2000 international dollars. 49

50 Income per capita (PPP) Think Again : Chile en Perspectiva Global-- Ingreso per cápita ,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Argentina Chile Irlanda Source for data: WDI GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP). Data are in constant 2000 international dollars. 50

51 Think Again : Chile en Perspectiva Global Ingreso per cápita Income per capita (PPP) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Chile Irlanda España Source for data: WDI GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP). Data are in constant 2000 international dollars. 51

52 Datos para Analizar e Informar Consejos sobre Políticas; No para Clasificaciones Precisas Todo dato de Gobernabilidad, Instituciones y Clima de Inversión está sujeto a un margen de error. Su objetivo no es clasificar países precisamente, sino investigar e ilustrar fortalezas y debilidades relativas, y obtener lecciones analíticas. Los datos presentados aquí y en el reporte no reflejan necesariamente opiniones oficiales sobre clasificaciones del Banco Mundial o su Junta Directiva. Errores responsabilidad del autor. Los indicadores en esta presentación refleja colaboración con A. Kraay y M. Mastruzzi. Materiales adicionales & acceso a datos interactivos: General: Datos: 52