Colombia : Otro año entre aguas turbulentas

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1 Octubre, 212 Colombia : Otro año entre aguas turbulentas Munir Jalil Chief Economist Colombia and Venezuela munir.jalil@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and non-us research analyst disclosures Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

2 Visión General Ajustamos de nuevo los pronósticos de crecimiento económico global, y ahora se espera un crecimiento de 2.5% para este año y del 2.6% para 213. Pronósticos Económicos (Porcentaje) GDP Growth CPI Inflation Current Balance (%of GDP) Fiscal Balance F 213F F 213F F 213F F 213F Global United States Japan Euro Area UK China Emerging Markets Source: Citi Research 2

3 Más y más impresión Cuánto dinero se ha impreso? Value of assets in central banks' balance sheets (Trillions of USD) $7 Trillion Eurozone Japan Switzerland China US UK Source: Thomson Datastream, Schroders. Updated 24 September 212 3

4 buscando reducir la volatilidad de los mercados Olas de volatilidad Medidas de volatilidad implícita MOVE (in basis points) VIX 3% US financial crisis Greek debt crisis US downgrade by S&P and European contagion European breakup fears and global slowdown Latest data (14 Sep 212): MOVE 68.3 VIX Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Interest Rate Volatility (LHS) Equity Volatility (RHS) Interest Rate volatility is measured by the MOVE Index which is calculated as the weighted average of implied volatility of 1 month option expirations on the current 2-, 5-, 1- and 3-year Treasuries; Equity Volatility is measured by the VIX Index which is an exchange traded contract on the CBOE based on real-time prices of options on the S&P 5 Index Sources: Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Chicago Board of Options Exchange; daily data through 14 September 212 Past performance does not guarantee future results. For illustration purposes only. Nothing ins this presentation must be taken as a recommendation. 4

5 CDS Europa (sin Grecia) En Septiembre 6, el BCE anunció un nuevo programa de compra de bonos esterilizados de manera ilimitada. Source: Bloomberg 5

6 CDS Latinoamérica El desafío de los países de Latinoamérica esta en su capacidad de respuesta frente a la desaceleración global. Source: Bloomberg 6

7 Tasas de los bonos del mundo desarrollados por el piso Comparación de tasas de bonos En la actualidad las tasas se encuentran en niveles muy bajos bonos están caros pero no hay alternativas Retornos de bonos a 1 años 35% 3% 25% 2% 22.9% Algunos bonos corporativos Moody s Corporate A Corporate AA Global High Yield BB 3.9% 3.5% 6.3% 15% 1% BofAM L Global Large Cap BBB Global Large Cap AA 2.% 3.9% 5% % 1.6% 1.5% Greece US United Kingdom 1.4% Germany.8% Japan Global Large Cap AAA 1.4% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Source: Thomson Datastream. As at 31 August 212 Past performance does not guarantee future results. For illustration purposes only. Nothing ins this presentation must be taken as a recommendation. 7

8 Tasas de los bonos de deuda de emergentes están en mínimos históricos Yield % Highest Yield Lowest Yield Bulgaria Chile China Thailand South Africa Malaysia Colombia Russia Mexico Philippines Panama Peru Brazil Malaysia Indonesia Turkey Ukraine Poland Colombia Poland Peru India Hungary Mexico Russia Indonesia Brazil Venezuela Argentina South Africa Turkey Ecuador Nigeria US$ Bond Local Currency Bond - Last Yield Source: Schroders; Bloomberg; JP Morgan 28 September 212 Past performance does not guarantee future results. For illustration purposes only. Nothing ins this presentation must be taken as a recommendation. 8

9 Precios de Commodities Arroz Trigo Maíz Índice FAO Source: Citi Research & Bloomberg 9

10 Pronósticos de Citi- Commodities Source: Citi Research 1

11 Colombia Área: 1,141,748 sq km Población (212E): 46.5MM PIB Nominal(212E): US$363Bn PIB per cápita (212E): US$7,89 Crecimiento Real del PIB (212E): 4.1% Inflación (212E): 2.9% Exportaciones FOB (212E): $66.1Bn Importaciones CIF (212E): $61.6Bn IED (212E): $14.2Bn Principales Ciudades: Bogotá(Capital) 7.8MM Medellin 3.4MM Cali 2.3MM Barranquilla 1.9 MM Source: Citi Research & Bloomberg 11

12 Confianza en el País La clasificación de Colombia fue recientemente subida a Grado de Inversión por todas las tres principales agencias de calificación de riesgo. La perspectiva fue subida de neutral a positiva en Standard & Poor s. S & P Moody s Fitch AAA Aaa AAA AA+ Aa1 AA+ AA Aa2 AA AA- Aa3 Chile (neutral) AA- A+ Chile (positive) A1 A+ Chile (neutral) A A2 A A- A3 A- BBB+ Baa1 Mexico (neutral) BBB+ BBB BBB- Mexico (neutral) Peru (positive) Brazil (neutral) Panama (neutral) Colombia (positive) Uruguay (neutral) Baa2 Baa3 Brazil (positive) Peru (positive) Panama (positive) Costa Rica (neutral) Colombia (neutral) Uruguay (positive) BBB BBB- Mexico(neutral) Brazil (neutral) Panama (neutral) Peru (neutral) Colombia (neutral) BB+ Ba1 BB+ Costa Rica (neutral) Uruguay (positive) BB Costa Rica (neutral) Ba2 El Salvador (neutral) BB El Salvador (negative) BB- El Salvador (neutral) Ba3 BB- B+ Dom. Republic (neutral) B1 Dom. Republic (neutral) B+ Venezuela (neutral) Source: Citi Research 12

13 Psicología típica del inversionista Es costoso admitir los errores pero todos lo hacemos La tendencia está ahí, pero me espero a que se confirme Comenzó a subir el precio, miremos a ver qué pasa Si vé, se hizo algo de platica Todo el mundo está comprando. Aunque ya me perdí buena parte de la subida todavía alcanzo alguito Bueno, pues será esperar. De otra forma lo que se va a demorar en devolverse va a ser una eternidad. Cómo? Se devolvió? Pues no creo que devuelva más, hasta aprovecho y compro barato Cayó más? Pues me alcanza para comprar más Qué pasa que no voltea, apenas devuelva un poquito vendo No puedo creerlo! Cuánto ha caído ya, tiene que haber tocado fondo Pues voy a comprar de nuevo Yo sabía que esto iba a pasar Y esto qué es? El mercado está loco, esto no puede ser No entiendo No aguanto, vendo todo! Que bueno que vendí Este rebote es nada, eso vuelve y cae No le dije? Source: Schroders, Deutsche Bank 29 Past performance does not guarantee future results. For illustration purposes only. Nothing ins this presentation must be taken as a recommendation. 13

14 COP Source: Citi Research & Bloomberg 14

15 Bonos - TES 7.% 6.5% 6.% Yield 5.5% 5.% 4.5% 4.% Apr-13 May-14 Jul-24 September 21, % 4.94% 6.46% October 15, % 4.9% 6.3% October 22, % 4.83% 6.3% Maturity (in Years) September 21, 212 October 15, 212 October 22, 212 Source: Citi Research & Bloomberg 15

16 Sector Energia - Petróleo 18 Compañia Peso en el índice IGBC Ecopetrol 25.18% Pacific Rubiales 26.35% Canacol Energy.88% Petrominerales 1.14% Correlación= Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct- 12 Source: Citi Research & Bloomberg 16 Indice Sector P etróleo Indice IGB C

17 Sector Bienes Consumidor Compañia Peso en el índice IGBC 7 Nutresa 2.11% Enka.18% Fabricato 5.48% Correlación = Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct- 12 Indice del Sector de Bienes de Consumidor Indice IGBC Source: Citi Research & Bloomberg 17

18 Sector Financiero Compañia Bancolombia SA 8.67% Inversiones Sura 3.32% Corp. Financiera 1.3% Bancolombia 2.95% Grupo Aval 2.11% Celsia.58% Aval y Acciones.81% Davivienda 2.45% Peso en el índice IGBC Correlación = Banco de Bogota.42% Bolsa de Valores de Col..53% Interbolsa.34% Bolsa Mercantil.1% Corp. Financiera Col..7% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr- 12 Indice Sector Financiero 23- May Jun- 12 Indice IGBC 23- Jul Aug Sep Oct- 12 Valorem.3% Helm Bank.22% Grupo Sura.99% Source: Citi Research & Bloomberg 18

19 Sector de Telecomunicaciones (ETB) Compañia Peso en el índice IGBC 5 ETB.36% Correlación = Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct- 12 Indice Sector Telecomunicaciones Indice IGBC Source: Citi Research & Bloomberg 19

20 Sector- Ventas Minoristas Compañia Peso en el índice IGBC 14 Exito 3.55% Biomax.1% Correlación = Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct- 12 Indice de Sector de Ventas Minoristas Indice IGBC Source: Citi Research & Bloomberg 2

21 Pronósticos Macroeconómicos Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Obs. Proj. Proj. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Nominal GDP (US$ bn) Nominal GDP (Pesos Tn) Real GDP growth (yoy) PRICES Consumer Price Inflation (yoy, eop) Core Inflation (yoy, eop) Exchange Rate (local currency to USD, eop) Exchange Rate (local currency to USD, avg) Exchange Rate (% change yoy, + dep.) MONETARY SECTOR Central Bank Rate (REPO, eop) Short-term Rate (eop) Long-term Rate (eop) EXTERNAL SECTOR Terms of Trade (% change yoy, + improvement) Workers' Remittances (US $bn) Foreign Direct Investment (in US$ bn) International Reserves (in US$ bn) PUBLIC SECTOR Central Gov. Budget Balance (% of GDP) Source: Citi Research 21

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