Perspectivas de los mercados financieros internacionales

Transcripción

1 Perspectivas de los mercados financieros internacionales Pascal Rohner, CFA, Investment Consultant, Credit Suisse Asesoria (Panama) S.A.

2 Retornos de clases de activos en el 2012 y el 2013 in % DJ-UBS Commodity TR Index JP Morgan EM Bond Index Barclays G7 Global Government Bond index Barclays Global Aggregate BAA Index 28.6 GPR 250 REIT World TR Index HFRX ML US High Yield index Swiss Re Cat Bond TR MSCI World TR Index YTD 2013 Performance in USD 2012 Performance in USD Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC

3 Estancamiento en el crecimiento de la economía global % YoY, PPP-weighted Emerging Markets Industrialized countries World GDP Growth Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, IMF, Credit Suisse / IDC

4 Indicadores líderes están fortaleciendo ej. índices de gestores de compra ( PMI ) Index Expansion Contraction Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Eurozone China USA Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC

5 El crecimiento económico global se reforzará en el Global 3.6% GCC 2014 Global Real GDP Growth 2013: 2.9% 2014: 3.6% G3 Eurozone BRIC EM-8 1.9% 1.2% 6.0% 5.8% Non-Japan Asia CEE & Russia Latin America Middle East & Africa 4.1% 6.2% 2.7% 3.1% 4.2% Norway 2.5% Sweden 2.2% Poland 2.6% Mexico 3.2% Less than -1-1 to 0 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 Over 8 Canada 2.2% USA 2.6% Argentina 3% Brazil 2.5% Germany UK 2% 2.2% Switzerland 2% France 0.7% Spain 0.6% Italy 0.7% Turkey 3.8% South Africa 2.7% Russian Federation 2.5% China 7.5% India 5.5% Thailand 4.5% Singapore 3.8% Indonesia 5.3% Australia 2.4% Japan 1.5% South Korea 3.5% Hong Kong 3.6% New Zealand 2.9% Source: listed forecasts Credit Suisse/ Global Research; other forecasts IMF

6 Inflacion sigue bajando en el primer mundo % YoY 3M-rolling, ppp-weighted Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Asia CEE & Russia Latin America Middle East & Africa United States Eurozone Source: Datatsream, Bloomberg, IMF, Credit Suisse / IDC

7 La tasa de desempleo en EE.UU. esta cayendo in % US unemployment rate; last value: 7.3 Average Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC

8 Final del mercado alcista de bonos que duró 30 años? % Jan 85 Jan 89 Jan 93 Jan 97 Jan 01 Jan 05 Jan 09 Jan year US Treasury Bond US Fed Fund Rate Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC

9 Intereses del tesoro a 10 años en el Bernanke first mentions Tapering FOMC Meeting FOMC Meeting FOMC Decision not to taper (yet) ene 13 feb 13 mar 13 abr 13 may 13 jun 13 jul 13 ago 13 sep 13 oct 13 nov 13 Fuente: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC IDC 9

10 Bonos de mercados emergentes sufren cuando las tasas suben % Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 CEMBI Moving Average (200D) Moving Average (50D) Moving Average (30D) Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC

11 El dólar se beneficia de la subida de tasas en EE.UU. USD/ COP 2'000 1'950 1'900 1'850 1'800 1'750 1'700 Dec 11 Apr 12 Aug 12 Dec 12 Apr 13 Aug 13 Dec 13 Apr 14 Aug 14 USD/ COP FX forward Credit Suisse forecast Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse, Credit Suisse / IDC

12 Monedas locales vs. dólar en el 2013 ILS CNY KRW HKD MXN HUF PLN TWD SGD THB MYR CZK PHP RUB COP CLP PEN BRL TRY INR IDR ZAR ARS Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC

13 Preferimos «high yield» sobre «mercados emergentes» in bp 2'000 1'800 1'600 1'400 1'200 1' Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Spread of Emerging Markets Bonds Spread of High Yield Bonds Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC

14 Acciones has subido mucho desde Marzo 2009 Index (100 = 23 Sep 1990) Nov 93 Nov 95 Nov 97 Nov 99 Nov 01 Nov 03 Nov 05 Nov 07 Nov 09 Nov 11 Nov 13 SMI DJ Euro Stoxx 50 Nikkei 225 S&P 500 MSCI World Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC

15 Valoración no es excesiva 12-month forward P/ E Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Dow Jones Stoxx MSCI World S&P 500 MSCI Emerging Markets Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC

16 La transformación económica de China Menos inversión y exportación, mas consumo Share of global consumption 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% US Japan Germany China India Source: Credit Suisse / IDC

17 Materias primas ya son atractivas para el Jan 90 Jan 94 Jan 98 Jan 02 Jan 06 Jan 10 2'000 1'800 1'600 1'400 1'200 1' CRB Commodity Index Copper Price WT Oil Price Gold Price (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC

18 Hedge Funds siguen siendo buenas alternativas Index CAGR* Risk** 9.9% 8.4% Dec 93 Dec 95 Dec 97 Dec 99 Dec 01 Dec 03 Dec 05 Dec 07 Dec 09 Dec % 6.3% 8.9% 9.3% 6% 4.7% *compound annual growth rate **annualized volatility º Merger arbitrage, Distressed securities ¹ Convertible arbitrage, Market neutral, Fixed income arbitrage ² Equity long/ short, Emerging markets ³ Global macro, Managed futures Event drivenº Relative value¹ Directional² Tactical Trading³ Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC

19 Resumen Renta Variable Enfocar en acciones cíclicas Acciones de Europa y Japón Cuidado con mercados emergentes. Preferimos consumo vs. mineras Renta Fija Mas volatilidad y menos retornos que en el pasado Necesita gestión activa, p.ej. fondos mutuos flexibles ( Total Return ) Preferimos High Yield e instrumentos híbridos (convertibles, bonos de bancos subordinados) Inversiones Alternativas Preferimos hedge funds (p.ej. equity long/short) y finca raíz

20 Preguntas y Respuestas Credit Suisse Asesoria (Panama) S.A. "Entidad Regulada y Supervisada por la Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores". Licencia para operar como Asesor de Inversiones. Credit Suisse Asesoría (Panama) S.A. es una entidad autorizada a ser representada en Colombia a través de la Resolución número 2005 del 2009 de la Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia

21 Asignación estratégica de activos y perfiles de riesgo Fixed Income Income Balanced Capital Gains Source: Credit Suisse / IDC

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